A recently released report lays out in stark terms the devastating consequences of climate and ecosystem collapse for the UK. It was written by the Joint Intelligence Committee (which brings together MI5, MI6 and GCHQ) who normally focus on military and terrorist threats. They now see the climate and nature emergency as a ‘national security issue’ not merely an ‘environmental issue’.
If you missed this little bit of news, it’s no surprise. Perhaps because its findings are so stark, Its launch last October was cancelled and a media blackout imposed. Following public pressure and FOI requests (including one from myself) it has been quietly released at a time when the public and media attention are distracted by Trump’s dangerous antics. A good time to bury bad news, you might say.
The report can be downloaded here.
The report doesn’t pull any punches. It is scant on detail which suggests evidence has been withheld. However it does spell out the devastating consequences for the UK and this is almost certainly the reason why a decision was made to cancel the reports launch last October and impose a temporary media blackout. According to one source close the report “This government is hiding the true danger of climate change from the people,”
The report has now been released with very little fanfare at a time when the public and media are distracted by Trump’s dangerous military gambits in Venezuela and elsewhere. A good time to bury very bad news you might say!
The headline statements of the report include:
- “There is a realistic possibility some ecosystems start to collapse by 2030 or sooner, as a result of biodiversity loss from land use change, pollution, climate change and other drivers.”
- “Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.”
And more specifically with regard to the UK:
“Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food. The UK relies on imports for a proportion of both food and fertiliser and cannot currently produce enough food to feed its population based on current diets…”
For ‘current diets’ read ‘a heavy reliance on meat products in which livestock and their feed command up to 85% of the UK’s total land use for agriculture‘
Food shortages and civil disorder
Looking at this through a food poverty lens (I am a trustee of Cornwall Independent Poverty Forum), the implications are pretty scary. One in ten people already experience food poverty in the UK. We have to import 40% or more of our food from outside, mainly European countries who themselves are starting to experience the effects of climate change on agricultural production. Moreover, our own soils are now degraded and with the increase in storms, we will see diminished agricultural production and an increase in food inflation. The result could be (will be?) a rapid and widespread increase in food poverty which in turn could lead to serious criminal violence and social disorder in the years to come.
I’m sorry to be a doom monger and I know that some people find these issues upsetting but this report is stark and It is the poor and most vulnerable who will experience the worst effects. We need to look at the cold-eyed reality of these issues even if there is not much we can do at this precise moment.
More locally, we need to reach out to the local farming community and also to organisations such as Cornwall Food and Farming Group, Cornwall Food Access Alliance, Sustainable Food Cornwall. Transitions groups could act as a link and connectors to facilitate conversations about how we plan together for a very difficult future. Of course I realise the irony of such a proposal will not be lost on those who have worked hard to keep the Climate Hub in Truro open but struggle to engage public interest.
The New Kows 
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